The UK government is preparing for potential food shortages, including chicken and pork, by the summer if the ongoing war with Iran continues, according to an April 16 scenario drawn up by officials.
This planning comes amid concerns about the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in carbon dioxide (CO2) supplies. CO2 is used in animal slaughter and food preservation. A spokesperson from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs said the department would keep working closely with businesses to address impacts from the conflict. “Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events,” they said.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil and gas shipments. Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran led to its effective closure, prices for petrol, diesel, and fertiliser have risen sharply. Business Secretary Peter Kyle said CO2 shortages were not currently a concern: “Right now, people should go on as they are,” he told Sky News.
Food sector leaders have echoed this cautious optimism. Tesco chief executive Ken Murphy stated that growers, suppliers, and manufacturers had not yet raised any supply risks: “We are in very good shape,” Murphy said. However, he did not comment on future food prices due to what he called a volatile situation.
Retailers say they expect contingency planning from government but note that ongoing Middle East tensions add inflationary pressure at a time when domestic costs are already high. The British Retail Consortium highlighted retailers’ experience managing supply chain disruptions but acknowledged these new challenges: “However, the situation in the Middle East continues to add inflationary pressure at a time when retailers already face significant new costs from domestic policies,” a spokesperson said.
Industry groups such as the Food and Drink Federation forecast food inflation could reach 9% by December while rising fertiliser prices may affect planting decisions later this year according to Jo Gilberton of the Agricultural Industries Confederation: “That’s when we end up with a potential food crisis if fertiliser and fuel costs are too much.” Last month, National Farmers’ Union warned that cucumber and tomato prices could rise within six weeks along with other crops over three to six months.
Lord Toby Harris of the National Preparedness Commission stressed testing how Britain manages under various scenarios: “the more that we test how we manage under various sorts of scenarios, the better that’s going to be” as international events continue affecting Britain.
In response to recent developments in the Middle East, last month saw government efforts restart production at Ensus bioethanol plant which produces CO2 vital for UK needs; plant representatives remain confident about meeting demand moving forward.
